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ABSTRACT Ecological stability plays a crucial role in determining the sustainability of ecosystem functioning and nature's contribution to people. Although the disruptive effects of extreme drought on ecosystem structure and functions are widely recognized, their effect on the stability of above‐ and belowground productivity remains understudied. We assessed the effects of drought on ecosystem stability using a 3‐year drought experiment established in six Eurasian steppe grasslands. The treatments imposed included ambient precipitation, chronic drought (66% reduction in precipitation throughout the growing season), and intense drought (complete exclusion of precipitation for two months during the growing season). We found that drought, irrespective of how it was imposed, reduced the stability of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) but had little impact on belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) stability. Reduced ANPP stability under drought was primarily attributed to changes in subordinate species stability, with mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its variability, historical drought frequency, and the aridity index (AI) also influencing responses to extreme drought. In contrast, BNPP stability was not related to any community factor investigated, but it was influenced by MAP variability and AI. Our findings that above‐ and belowground productivity stability in grasslands are differentially sensitive to multi‐year extreme drought under both common (MAP and AI) as well as unique drivers (plant community changes) highlight the complexity of predicting carbon cycle dynamics as hydrological extremes become more severe. 

Extreme droughts generally decrease productivity in grassland ecosystems1,2,3 with negative consequences for nature’s contribution to people4,5,6,7. The extent to which this negative effect varies among grassland types and over time in response to multi-year extreme drought remains unclear. Here, using a coordinated distributed experiment that simulated four years of growing-season drought (around 66% rainfall reduction), we compared drought sensitivity within and among six representative grasslands spanning broad precipitation gradients in each of Eurasia and North America—two of the Northern Hemisphere’s largest grass-dominated regions. Aboveground plant production declined substantially with drought in the Eurasian grasslands and the effects accumulated over time, while the declines were less severe and more muted over time in the North American grasslands. Drought effects on species richness shifted from positive to negative in Eurasia, but from negative to positive in North America over time. The differing responses of plant production in these grasslands were accompanied by less common (subordinate) plant species declining in Eurasian grasslands but increasing in North American grasslands. Our findings demonstrate the high production sensitivity of Eurasian compared with North American grasslands to extreme drought (43.6% versus 25.2% reduction), and the key role of subordinate species in determining impacts of extreme drought on grassland productivity.